Fri. Apr 12th, 2024

In the lead-up to South Africa’s 2024 National and Provincial elections, a recent Ipsos poll has outlined possible scenarios that could reshape the country’s political landscape. The poll, conducted face-to-face from October 23 to December 1, 2023, aimed to gauge the political preferences of the electorate.

One notable scenario from the findings suggests that the African National Congress (ANC) might need to form a coalition with a smaller party to govern after the elections. Additionally, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could surpass the Democratic Alliance (DA) to become the official opposition party.

Under this scenario, the EFF emerges as the official oppostion party. Ispos Poll

The poll data, however, predates the establishment of the uMkhonto we Sizwe party by former president Jacob Zuma on December 16, 2023, implying that its impact on the political landscape is yet to be measured.

Key insights from the poll indicate a marginal lead for the EFF (18.6%) over the DA (17.3%), hinting at a potential shift in the official opposition status. The ANC secures 38.5% of the vote in this scenario, with the Inkatha Freedom Party at 3.6% and Action SA at 3.4%. Notably, 10.1% of respondents remain undecided or choose not to disclose their preference, posing a significant challenge in predicting the election’s outcome.

Under this scenario, the DA is the main opposition and the ANC is well below 50%. Ispos Poll

Another scenario suggests a dip in ANC support below 50%, securing 40.5% of the vote, while the DA regains ground with 20.5% as the official opposition, and the EFF maintains its challenge with 19.6%.

Regional support dynamics vary, with the IFP gaining strength in KwaZulu-Natal, and Action SA making strides in Gauteng. The Multi-party Charter for South Africa also emerges as a potential contender, garnering approximately 33% of the vote in the early stages.

Turn out scenarios under this Ispos poll.

Ipsos cautions against interpreting these results as definitive election predictions, highlighting the influence of factors such as campaign dynamics, socio-economic shifts, and the state of essential services on the final outcome. The looming possibility of a national-level coalition government adds complexity, with the ANC potentially requiring a minor party to secure a majority.

As South Africa approaches the 2024 elections, approximately 35% of registered voters express dissatisfaction, feeling that no political party truly represents their views. This sentiment casts uncertainty over the electoral landscape, especially with President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to announce the official election date during Thursday’s Parliament opening ceremony. The Independent Electoral Commission’s efforts to increase voter registration face challenges, with only about 64% of eligible South Africans currently registered to vote, raising concerns about democratic engagement.

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