Meteorologists are forecasting that South Africa could experience its hottest summer on record, as global temperatures continue to rise. While it’s still early in the season to confirm, the outlook for 2024 suggests that this summer could be exceptionally hot. The year is also on track to become the hottest globally since records began in the late 19th century, with temperatures predicted to exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels.
Annette Botha, Chief Meteorologist at Vox Weather, stated, “Current heatwave conditions and the ongoing global warming trend suggest that this summer could indeed be one of the hottest on record.” However, she emphasized that it is too soon to make definitive predictions, as summer temperatures could vary depending on weather patterns over the coming months.
Meteorologists calculate summer heat by averaging daily maximum temperatures from December to February in the Southern Hemisphere and comparing them with historical data. This method will determine whether 2024’s summer will break temperature records.
The global situation aligns with local concerns. In November 2023, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was on track to become the warmest year on record. Global temperatures are expected to reach 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing previous highs.
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), affirmed that the latest data confirms with near certainty that 2024 will be the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
Professor Francois Engelbrecht, a climatologist at Wits University’s Global Change Institute, noted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had predicted in 2021 that the 1.5°C threshold would likely be breached in the mid-2020s. With this milestone now reached, the reality of climate change continues to affect both global and local weather patterns.