Msunduzi Local Government: A Dramatic Shift
In the ward of Sweetwaters (Ward 2) in Msunduzi Municipality, there were significant shifts in political power through a series of elections in 2024.
- 2023 By-election: The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) surprised many by winning the ward, beating the African National Congress (ANC) by 759 votes. The IFP’s rise from fourth place in 2021 to first place in 2023 was marked by a collapse in support for the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The IFP won all seven voting districts, taking six from the ANC and one from the EFF.
- 2024 Provincial Elections: The MK (Mkhonto we Sizwe) party emerged as the dominant force in the ward, winning 53% of the vote, reversing the IFP’s 2023 gains. The ANC’s support dropped dramatically from 63% in 2019 to just 18%. The IFP finished second with 22%, but this was far lower than its 2023 victory percentage. The EFF saw its support shrink from 15% in 2021 to just 1% in this election.
- 2024 By-election: The ANC regained the ward, defeating MK by 438 votes. The ANC’s victory was driven by a strong performance at Bhekizizwe Primary School, the largest district, where it won by 318 votes. The IFP’s decline was evident, as it failed to secure any district as a leader. This by-election victory suggested that the ANC was recovering some of the support it had lost earlier in the year. Following the by-election, the ANC increased its seats in the Msunduzi Council to 40, just one short of a majority. The IFP fell to 8 seats, and MK was left with just 9 seats.
Hantam District: A Key Shift in the Northern Cape
In Hantam District (Ward 7), the ANC made remarkable gains in the Northern Cape:
- 2021 Local Elections: The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) narrowly lost to the Democratic Alliance (DA) by just 26 votes. The ANC finished third. However, the FF+ won six of the 12 voting districts, with the DA securing four and the ANC one.
- 2024 Provincial Election: The DA won the ward with 51% of the vote, followed by FF+ at 23% and the ANC at 15%. The DA also won nine of the 12 districts, but both the DA and ANC lost support compared to previous years, and the ANC was becoming more competitive.
- 2024 By-election: Following the death of the ward councillor, the ANC shocked both the DA and FF+, taking the seat by a margin of 68 votes. The ANC’s support more than doubled compared to 2021 and tripled from its May 2024 performance. It was the first time the ANC won a seat in this traditionally DA-strong area. In this by-election, the ANC won five of the 12 districts, with the FF+ securing four and the DA three. The ANC’s victory in the Middelpos Community Hall district, which was the most populous, and in the sparsely populated Brakfontein district were crucial to its success. With this victory, the ANC now holds an outright majority in Hantam, gaining 7 seats in the 13-seat council, removing the need for coalition agreements with smaller parties like the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
Conclusion
The ANC experienced a recovery in two significant local elections in KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape in 2024, suggesting potential recovery after its struggles in the 2024 provincial elections. However, while the ANC’s resurgence was notable, parties like MK and the IFP have demonstrated that competition remains fierce and dynamic.
By-elections for 2024 concluded with the ANC making notable strides in areas once dominated by opposition parties, though the challenges of retaining support and addressing local issues remain ongoing. The next round of elections will resume on 15 January 2025.